Market Data

Showing posts with label Union Budget. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Union Budget. Show all posts

Sunday, January 26, 2020

The Sensex Outlook for the Week Starting 27-01-2020

The weekly change in the indices gives no hint of the volatile swings we saw in the week gone by. And this has been the pattern over the last 5 weeks - huge swings & newer highs, but moderate closings on a weekly basis.

Going forward into F&O Expiry + Budget Week, the markets will continue to face immense headwinds / selling pressure at every rise. 

Rarely has any Budget enthused the markets immediately and after almost all Budgets, the markets have tanked - no matter how Good/Bad or Mediocre the Budget was.
Why should this year be any different? 

Use any rise/rally to build INDEX aggressive shorts in the run-up to the budget. (Off-course, all short positions have to be inline with your MTM capacity). 

My bearish outlook will remain in place as long as the markets trade below 41700/12275 and will be negated with a sustained close above 41985/12357.

Index Levels 
S2           41,486           12,211
S1           41,538           12,226
Previous Close      41,613.19      12,248.25
R1           41,630           12,253
R2           41,653           12,260
Fair Value           34,012           10,011
GenerateChart (1).png
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Friday, July 5, 2019

The Sensex Outlook for the Day 05-07-2019

The final trigger for the market top is upon us. No matter what the budget brings, expect the markets to top out for the short term. Expect a positive, even a gap-up opening, followed up by a quick summit to ~~40313-40376-40436 (12068-12087-12106) before correcting shortly thereafter.

Index Levels to Watch & Fair Value
Date 05-Jul-19
Index Sensex Nifty
S2            39,855           11,931
S1            39,885           11,940
Previous Close     39,908.06    11,946.75
R1            39,918           11,950
R2            39,979           11,968
Fair Value 28,699 8,591

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Sunday, June 30, 2019

The Sensex Outlook for the Week Starting - 01-07-2019

The markets have broken multiple support levels to land where there are currently poised.The region from the current levels to 39675-39722 (11873-11887) is fraught with resistances. It will taken an Herculean effort by the bulls to cross the 39675-39722 (11873-11887) zone anytime soon.
Its best to remain short on the markets while looking for stock specific opportunities in the Top-100 Universe.

As regards to the Union Budget on Friday,  expect the same to consolidate on the proposals of the interim budget presented earlier in the year. It will be sane to not have any expectations from the Budget or expect a Pre-Budget Rally in the markets.

Index Levels to Watch & Fair Value
Date 01-Jul-19
Index Sensex Nifty
S2            39,006           11,673
S1            39,343           11,773
Previous Close     39,394.64    11,788.85
R1            39,426           11,798
R2            39,459           11,808
Fair Value 28,722 8,595

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Sunday, February 28, 2016

The Sensex Outlook for the week starting 29-02-2016

I had already mentioned in this column on 18th February that the chance of one last fall remains ( and also on last Sunday that the chance of a fall to sub-23000 level remains ( so the fall of the last week should not come as a surprise (or shock) or be a cause of more worry.

As we finally come face to face with the budget, be prepared for a knee-jerk reaction, come what may. The Honorable Finance Minister, would have his own reasons for presenting radical proposals and measures or even not suggesting the same. The budget could be populist or pro-reform, the initial reaction would be on the over-blown side only.

It would be best to wait till Wednesday for the budget dust to settle and then take a near to medium term call on the markets.

If this were not the budget week, I would be looking forward to a retest of ~22600 levels on the Sensex, before the uptrend finally resumes & also reiterate that “and staggered investments over the next few weeks will reap abundant gains in the months to come.” (

Sensex Previous Close
Sensex Fair Value

Disclaimer and Exclusion of Liability -

Thursday, February 25, 2016

The Sensex Outlook for the Day - 26-02-2016

Expect the Sensex to rally briefly. However being a Friday and an event heavy week coming up, its best to trade light for the day.

Sensex Previous Close
Sensex Fair Value

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