The Sensex Outlook for the Day - 14-08-2019

While the near term target remains at ~36000 for the Sensex, be wary of shorting the markets today. We could possibly see a small relief rally. Best to wait till next week for fresh aggressive shorts. 

Index Levels to Watch & Fair Value
Date	14-Aug-19
Index	Sensex	Nifty
S2	36,537	10,801
S1	36,888	10,905
Previous Close	36,958.16	10,925.85
R1	36,983	10,933
R2	37,095	10,966
Fair Value	29,789	8,806

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The Sensex Outlook for the Week Starting 25-02-2019

Expecting a mildy positive start to the week, however sustaining higher levels is still a concern for the markets. We see buying emerge at lower levels (~35300) and intense selling at higher levels (~36000). Do not carried away with any rallies, instead initiate shorts at higher levels.

Date	25-Feb-19
Index	Sensex	Nifty
S2	35,806	10,772
S1	35,842	10,783
Previous Close	35,871.48	10,791.65
R1	35,907	10,802
R2	36,023	10,837
Fair Value	32,336	9,728

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The Sensex Outlook for the Week Starting 14-01-2019 | Investment Picks Below ₹ 50

The Sensex has been consolidating around 36000 with a volatile bias. The trading range has shifted from the 35600-36000 band to the 35800-36200 band, however the underlying trend remains clearly bearish till the time 36600 is taken out convincingly. 

We continue to add Index Puts while waiting to short the Index Futures. One can short the Index Futures at 36200-36250 levels and also look at stock-specific opportunities outside the Top-100 Universe. 

Date	14-Jan-19
Index	Sensex	Nifty
S2	35,903	10,762
S1	35,977	10,785
Previous Close	36,009.84	10,794.95
R1	36,032	10,801
R2	36,052	10,807
Fair Value	31,547	9,457

Investment Picks Below ₹ 50:

The following stocks are looking good for a short to medium term horizon:

Name	BSE/NSE Code	LTP - 11-01-2018
A2Z Infra Engineering Ltd	A2ZINFRA	13
Central Bank of India	CENTRALBK	36.25
D B Realty Ltd	DBREALTY	27.65
Essar Shipping Ltd	ESSARSHPNG	13.9
Ester Industries Ltd	ESTER	36.85
Hathway Cable & Datacom Ltd	HATHWAY	31
India Power Corporation Ltd	DPSCLTD	14.1
Manaksia Ltd	MANAKSIA	42.5
MMTC Ltd	NSE:MMTC	29.5
Religare Enterprises Ltd	RELIGARE	27.95
Shriram EPC Ltd	SHRIRAMEPC	11.7
SJVN Ltd	SJVN	25.3
The South Indian Bank Ltd	SOUTHBANK	15.7
Vikas EcoTech Ltd	VIKASECO	14.35

Profit booking / exit updates will be given when due.

The Sensex Outlook for the Day 09-01-2019

The markets couldn't sustain much above 36000; we are now at the upper end of the 35600-36000 trading range. If the Sensex does manages to break this range on the 

upper side, we could see a short dash towards 36287,36329. However if the Sensex fails to make a convincing upmove above 36000, its back to 35600 on the way to 34400.

Date	09-Jan-19
Index	Sensex	Nifty
S2	35,937	10,789
S1	35,968	10,798
Previous Close	35,980.93	10,802.15
R1	36,037	10,819
R2	36,104	10,839
Fair Value	31,735	9,527

The Sensex Outlook for the Week Starting 17-12-2018

For the last 2 trading sessions of the previous week, the markets have been struggling to sustain higher levels, but to no success. Die-hard bulls may call this 'quiet consolidation' but I think otherwise - a failure to comfortably cross and sustain 36000 today will trigger a fresh downside.

Conservative traders can wait out and look at stock-specific opportunities till the time the markets struggle at 36000/10810 and aggressive traders can initiate fresh shorts at current/higher levels with a SL at 36100/10840.

Date	17-Dec-18
Index	Sensex	Nifty
S2	35,932	10,797
S1	35,952	10,803
Previous Close	35,962.93	10,805.45
R1	35,980	10,811
R2	36,019	10,823
Fair Value	31,628	9,504